A Cadiz Securities investigation contends that the effect of the tournament will be far more “muted than much of the current local optimism would suggest”.

The research report, by analysts Shamil Ismail and Jasmine Lin, cites data from the 2002 World Cup in Korea and Japan, showing that tourism numbers and retail sales may not necessarily spike. Tourist arrivals in South Korea actually declined during the tournament.

The decline in the number of intra-Asian visitors was not sufficiently offset by the increased tourism from non-Asian countries. “We believe this trend could be repeated at the 2010 World Cup in SA,” say the analysts.

“We fear that there may be a risk that some tourists from Africa may avoid SA at the time of the World Cup, as the case appeared to be with intra-continent visitors in Korea in 2002.”

However, retailers with products directly linked to the World Cup are unfazed by the findings.

“We are building up stock levels for what we think would be appropriate for the period,” says Foschini CEO Doug Murray. “We will be putting out a lot of World Cup-related products, particularly jerseys.”

Foschini division Totalsports works closely with the big three sports brands, Nike, Adidas and Reebok.

“From the retail point of view, a brand like Totalsports would benefit,” says Murray.

He concedes that it is hard to say if the general clothing business would benefit. “We will have to take advantage of the extended school holidays. Hopefully, we can get some benefit come June,” he says.

According to the Cadiz report, the World Cup did not provide a substantial boost to retail sales growth in South Korea. Year-on-year retail sales growth peaked at 18% in February 2002 and the growth rate in real retail sales during June 2002, the period of the World Cup, was at 8%.

“The absence of a spike in retail sales is not entirely unexpected as some retailers in SA have expressed a concern that customers could be watching games instead of being in the stores, shopping,” Cadiz analysts say.

Murray says: “We did research on what happened in Germany, what happens with sport product retailers, and we hope to maximise our returns.

“It is going to be quite a different trading pattern than we are used to.”

Murray’s optimism goes beyond the event itself. “Maybe the World Cup would trigger some momentum going forward. We hope that the World Cup will change the sentiments of the consumers,” Murray says.

Sizwe Nxedlana, an economist at FNB, is one of the hopefuls. “Retail sales, particularly for general dealers, food and beverages and tobacco, will get a boost from the World Cup.”

Wholesalers of non-durable goods should also see a boost in the two months. “The World Cup should help them against the falling goods inflation,” says Nxedlana.

Quinton Ivan, an investment analyst from Coronation Fund Managers, agrees. “One should expect some benefit from the World Cup, given the influx of foreigners before, during and after the actual event.

“Notwithstanding the World Cup, a bigger driver of retail sales is a recovery in consumer spending, which to date remains under pressure.”

Food retailers are also optimistic.

“We are very positive … and have a whole new range planned, including toys, novelties and clothing,” says Barry Knichel, general merchandise director of Pick n Pay.

Brian Weyers, corporate marketing director of the group, says: “We expect the sales of outdoor merchandise like camping chairs, cooler boxes, umbrellas and sun-tan lotion will see an increase in demand compared to other winter seasons due to the high number of overseas visitors coming to watch the games and making holidays in SA and neighbouring countries.”