They prefer to wait for a couple of months before confirming the revival in demand for cars and popping the champagne.

Chris de Kock, executive head of sales and marketing at Wesbank, says the latest sales figures — which saw total new vehicles rise 15,5% year on year last month, the first increase in 33 months — reflect seasonal change rather than “real growth” in sales.

De Kock says December and January are traditionally volatile months due to the carryover of car sales.

Although last month’s sales performance is good news for the motor industry, the real rate of growth for the year ahead will be established only once the sales data for the rest of the first quarter are known, De Kock says.

Investec agrees, and says it remains cautious about calling a turn in vehicle sales as the January data are usually distorted by consumers delaying purchasing cars until January so that they can be registered in the new year.

“We would not be surprised by the usual pullback in February’s sales,” it warns.

Investec views the pick-up as a temporary phenomenon driven by seasonal factors.

Sales of new passenger cars, which account for 70% of the total vehicle sales, surged 20% year on year last month.

By and large, Investec has a point, which goes right to the heart of the problems facing car manufacturers, dealers and parts suppliers.

At least for now, crucial catalysts — such as consumer confidence, access to credit and car prices — do not look as though they might support sustainable growth in sales.

Nedbank says the underlying demand for vehicles is relatively weak, with households reluctant to buy big-ticket items such as cars as their income remains under pressure, debt levels stay high and labour market conditions look tight.

The bank says a noticeable — and probably sustainable — improvement is likely to be experienced towards the end of the second quarter as household finances slowly improve, interest rates remain low and confidence starts to improve in the build-up to the Soccer World Cup.

Tight-fisted banks are denying consumers finance to buy new cars; even though confidence is improving, it is low; and new car prices have been increasing over the past year.

Vehicle producers have been revving up prices since 2008 to counter the weak rand, but price increases make new cars unaffordable.

Tony Twine, economist from Econometrix, says new car prices rose by an average 6,3% annually in 2008 and 13,8% last year.

For this year, Twine expects an increase of 5%-6%. This excludes the likely effect of the “green” tax the government is considering introducing.

“We are not sure what the carbon dioxide tax is going to do to car prices from July onwards,” Twine says.

Lower interest rates should help improve the finances of households and businesses, which in turn should stimulate demand for new vehicles.

Mike Glendinning, director of sales and marketing at Volkswagen SA, says real household income is expected to recover, business and consumer confidence improve, and inflation stay lower. “The real rate of growth in the sales cycle will only be determined in coming months after the distortions of the December and January period have been accounted for in the analysis,” Glendinning says.