Those figures are due on Thursday. But a labour force survey from Statistics SA tomorrow may carry more weight, with the final estimate of job losses over last year likely to rise above 1-million.

On the other hand, the data may also show that the rapid pace of job shedding in the economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year.

“The pace of job losses is expected to have slowed relative to the previous three quarters and this is likely to bring the total jobs lost to over a million,” says Kgotso Radira, an economist at Investec.

Citigroup economist Jean-Francois Mercier is betting that SA’s official jobless rate fell to 23% from 24,5% in the third quarter, mainly due to seasonal factors.

But he still thinks “trend” employment continued to fall, including in the farm and informal sectors of the economy.

SA moved out of its first recession in 17 years during the third quarter of last year but employment tends to lag output growth.

Jobs in the manufacturing and retail sectors, two of the economy’s biggest, have been hit hardest by the recession. But a key industry survey suggests that employment in SA’s factories rose for the first time since April 2008.

Analysts are betting that factory output rose in December compared with a year earlier — the first annual increase in more than a year.

The forecasts vary, with Bloomberg on Friday putting the consensus estimate at a meagre 0,1%. Many analysts have more optimistic forecasts.

Standard Bank expects a rise of 3,6%, after an annual drop of 4,7% in November.

“Low base effects, particularly in the automotive, petroleum, and iron and steel sectors where some recovery is under way, are supporting this increase,” it said.

“Base effects” is a term that refers to the comparison with the year-earlier month.

New vehicle sales began the year with a bang, rising for the first time in 33 months. That suggests consumer demand, the economy’s main engine, may be recovering.

There may also be good news from one of SA’s main measures of business confidence, compiled by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The index fell unexpectedly to 83,5 in December from 84,1 in November — mainly because of sharp falls in retail sales and private-sector borrowing. But an increase last month seems likely, given the improved economic data so far.

The climax may come at the end of the week when President Jacob Zuma makes his state of the nation address. Brait economist Colen Garrow says business hopes Zuma will quash talk of nationalising the Reserve Bank and mines.